Likud Rebounds in Polls as Labor Falls

The Likud party made a significant rebound in public opinion polls with a projection of 32-34 seats in the coming elections. The increase from 28 seats in previous polls follows a three week decline spurred by alleged scandals. The increased strength of Likud indicates that after seeing the gap between Ariel Sharon and Amram Mitzna shrink, many Likud voters have returned to the party to ensure Sharon’s election. It also indicates that many voters have gotten over the initial reaction to the reported scandals and are focusing again on security issues. Likud may have also gained a backlash from the move by Supreme Court Justice Mishael Cheshin to cut off television coverage of Prime Minister Sharon’s press conference in which he was answering charges relating to a loan taken by his sons. Cheshin, as chairman of the Central Election Committee, deemed the press conference to be political propoganda. Many voters, however, viewed the move as undue intervention in the electoral process by the court.

At the same time, Labor has fallen in the polls to 20 seats after hovering at 22-24 seats for several weeks. The fall of Labor is probably related to Mitzna’s recent declaration that the party would not under any circumstances join a national unity government with Likud. This position runs counter to public opinion, including among a large percentage of Labor voters, which largely favors a national unity government. By making this declaration, Labor essentially is running against Meretz and not Likud. Furthermore, a large part of the electorate does not believe that Labor will stand by Mitzna’s statement. The party is racked by internal conflict over a number of issues. Following Mitzna’s announcement, Binyamin Ben Eliezer and Ephraim Sneh both indicated that they believe that there are circumstances under which Labor would join a Sharon-led government.

Recent News...